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The K7RA Solar Update

11/19/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: New sunspots appeared on November 14 and 16, but solar activity was lower and geomagnetic activity as well. Over November 16 – 18 the total sunspot area declined from 330, to 270 to only 40 millionths of a hemisphere, the lowest observed recently.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 36.4 last week to 30.9 over the November 11 – 17 reporting week. Solar flux averages were off as well, to 80.8 this week compared to 89.1 in last week’s bulletin.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 18 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers went from 11.7 to 4.9. Middle latitude A index daily average went all the way down to zero on November 13.

We see no high numbers in the solar flux prediction, which has 80 on November 19 – 20; 82 on November 21 – 23; 86 on November 24 – 26; 85 on November 27; 83 on November 28 – 29; 85 on November 30 – December 2; 82 on December 3 – 11; 79, 80, and 79 on December 12 – 14; 78, 77, 79, and 81 on December 15 – 18; 83 on December 19 – 21, and 85 on December 22 – 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 15, and 8 on November 19 – 22; 5 on November 23 – 27; 10, 10, and 8 on November 28 – 30; 5 on December 1 – 12; 12 on December 13 – 14; back to 5 on December 15 – 24, and 10 on December 25 – 26.

Here’s the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 19 – December 15 from J.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:

  • quiet on 21, 24, December 5, 10, 12

  • quiet to unsettled on November 19 – 20, 22 – 23, 25, December 9, 11

  • quiet to active on November 28 – 30, December 2, 6, 8

  • unsettled to active on November 26 – 27, December 3 – 4, 7, 15

  • active to disturbed December 1, (13 – 14)

  • Solar wind will intensify on November (29 – 30), December (1,) 2 – 4, 14 – 15

Notes:

  • Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

  • An important notice will be issued on Thursday, November 25.

WB8VLC reported from Salem, Oregon:

“On November 13 on 10 meter CW at 2236 UTC I came across a loud station calling CQ, Nick, VK9DX on Norfolk Island.

“After the usual reports and such of which Nick was a true 589 on CW, I listened to Nick for another 10 minutes calling CQ on 10 meters after which he stopped after a couple more lucky hams caught him.

“On a guess I checked out 12 and 15 meters to see if maybe the VK9 would end up on one of these bands, and sure enough, at 2307 UTC I found VK9DX finishing a QSO on 12 meter SSB with a real S-8 – 9 signal, and then we had a nice 10 minute or so chat.

“Nick runs a vertical dipole and nothing fancy antenna or power wise except for what looks to be a great take-off shot to North America, which accounted for his true 589 on 10 CW and S-8 – 9 on 12 SSB.

“After 12 meters faded out I went to 15 meters to see if he moved there but he wasn't to be found; however, I did find Stuie, VK8NSB, in Darwin Australia calling CQ on CW with a great 589 signal into Oregon.”

Somehow I missed this, but a few weeks ago KB1DK reported from Trumbull, Connecticut, on November 1:

“Here is my report for the 2021 CQ WW SSB Contest:

“After enjoying wide open band conditions on 15 meters Saturday, we experienced a solid 2-hour opening on 10 meters to CQ zones 14, 15, and 20 on Sunday morning starting at 1430 UTC here in Connecticut (FN31). I was able to log 108 contacts using just an inverted V. Almost all signals were S-8 and above, and the band was full of activity between 28.300 and 28.750. There was minimal fading during the opening and most of the stations were heard during the entire 2 hour period. It was great to hear the words, “thanks for the fifth band” being exchanged on more than one occasion.

“The only countries not heard were the Scandinavians, although I worked OX7A on a random visit to 10 meters on Saturday at 1620 UTC. The longest distances worked were to Greece and Israel. The best part of the contest weekend were the conditions on 10, 15, and 40 meters and working four stations on all five bands.”

ARRL November Sweepstakes (phone) is this weekend — a very big and popular domestic radio contest.

Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17 were 39, 39, 24, 23, 23, 35, and 33, with a mean of 30.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 84.5, 82.9, 81, 78.7, 79.3, 80.1, and 79.2, with a mean of 80.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 0, 2, 6, 11, and 9, with a mean of 4.9.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check this propagation page by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share your reports and observations.



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